Washington, which had grown increasingly irritated with Erdoğan's policies and unpredictable style in recent years now hopes that a new Turkish government, even a coalition, will significantly change Turkey's foreign policy strategies and tactics.

Don't bet on it. Despite Erdoğan's personal excesses and recent poor judgment in foreign policy, the main thrust of his earlier foreign policies is unlikely to change significantly. While we can't know yet what kind of ruling coalition will emerge in the weeks ahead, no combination will dramatically change the substance of Turkish policies.

In my book of last year, "Turkey and the Arab Spring: Turkey and Leadership in the Middle East" I set forth detailed arguments for why AKP foreign policy in its first decade of rule (up until the turmoil of the Arab Spring) represented a new, profound, substantive, and permanent strategic shift in Turkey's foreign policy vision.

Will Turkey Now Change its Foreign Policies?